China Economy

Huang Yiping

2026-09-20 00:17:08

Huang Yiping says AI could deepen China’s supply-demand imbalance

Huang Yiping, a Peking University professor and member of the People’s Bank of China’s Monetary Policy Committee, said at an economic forum in Beijing that artificial intelligence could deepen and prolong China’s imbalance of strong supply and weak demand. He said broader AI deployment and faster innovation may worsen the mismatch between aggregate supply and aggregate demand, and that the contradiction is unlikely to fade quickly in the near term. Huang called for more market-oriented reform so the market can play a larger role in resource allocation, along with a higher share of household income in the economy. He also said China should consider deeper overseas investment and industrial cooperation instead of relying only on exports. In addition, Huang suggested the central government increase borrowing to help repair the balance sheets of local governments, financial institutions, and companies, warning that stimulus measures would have limited effect if those entities cannot regain the capacity to undertake new economic activity.

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Engels Pause

2026-09-14 14:44:09

A long read reframes the Engels Pause as “social sarcopenic obesity” in the AI era

MarsBit published a long-form article by Lü Peng of Tencent Research Institute arguing that current debate around a possible new “Engels Pause” in the age of artificial intelligence is too narrowly framed as a distribution problem. In the author’s view, the deeper issue is not simply that a larger economic pie is being divided unevenly, but that the economy is growing “fatter” while society is shrinking. He describes that condition as “social sarcopenic obesity,” a state in which GDP, profits and capital stock expand while social organization, collective capacity and self-renewing dynamism weaken. The article revisits the original Engels Pause during Britain’s early Industrial Revolution, citing figures that show output per worker rose about 46% between 1780 and 1840 while real wages increased only 12%, even as profit rates and profit shares climbed sharply. It then argues that the old pause ended through a combination of capital accumulation and social institution-building, but that the modern version may not heal in the same way because today’s gains increasingly take the form of rent rather than productive profit, and because AI-era capital deepening can substitute for labor instead of complementing it. Lü extends the analysis to China, saying the country’s policy framework, including the “two synchronizations” and the newer emphasis on “investing in people,” gives it a different starting point from the West. Even so, he warns against relying on redistribution alone and calls for a broader agenda centered on rebuilding society’s “muscle” through organization, participation, labor bargaining capacity and local social institutions.

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Artificial In

2026-09-10 00:50:11

As AI Booms, a Harder Question Emerges: Who Will Capture the Gains?

At the 2026 Inclusion Bund Summit, economists and business leaders focused on a question that sits beyond model performance and capital spending: what kind of economy will AI actually produce? Participants said AI has already become a real force in production, labor markets, investment and consumption, yet its long-term economic effects remain unsettled. The discussion centered on three issues. First, whether the gains from AI will stay concentrated in infrastructure, leading firms and capital owners, or spread into factories, hospitals, stores and small businesses. Second, whether AI will mostly replace labor or augment workers, a distinction that could shape income distribution, aggregate demand and even future inflation dynamics. Third, what this means for China, where employment remains heavily tied to traditional industries and small and medium-sized enterprises. Speakers including Huang Yiping, Liu Yuanchun, Miao Yanliang, Han Xinyi, Xing Ziqiang and Jiang Xiaojuan argued that AI’s economic outcome will depend not only on efficiency gains, but also on adoption costs, labor participation, social protection and whether Chinese AI products can scale into global markets from the outset.

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PBOC

2026-09-04 10:20:34

China's Central Bank Q2 Payment Data: Credit Card Count Shrinks, NPL Ratios Diverge

The People's Bank of China released Q2 2026 payment system data, showing 10.267 billion bank cards nationwide, of which 677 million credit and debit-integrated cards, down nearly 20 million from the start of the year, with over 100,000 cards exiting daily. Listed bank mid-year reports reveal universal declines in credit card outstanding balances at the six largest state-owned banks, with ICBC's loan balance dropping 14.39%. Non-performing loan ratios rose sharply at ICBC to 5.37%, Bank of Communications to 3.8%, Minsheng Bank to 4.22%, and Industrial Bank to 3.79%. In August 2026, credit card NPL transfers totaled 12.2 billion yuan.

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AI

2026-08-24 01:38:11

What AI Leaves Behind May Matter More Than What It Creates

The Economist has sparked debate with a commentary arguing that China’s push in robots, AI, new energy and advanced manufacturing has coincided with weak consumption, pressured corporate profits and a still-fragile recovery in market confidence. The article claims that the race for technology may be distorting resource allocation. But the bigger issue it points to is global: when machines become increasingly capable, how do humans share in the value they create? The piece argues that AI is changing the logic of wealth distribution, and that the central challenge is no longer only productivity, but how income, consumption and social welfare are linked in an AI-driven economy.

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China economy

2026-08-03 02:14:46

China’s July Manufacturing PMI Falls to 49.2, Slipping Back Into Contraction

China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3 in June, marking the first drop below the 50 expansion-contraction line in five months, according to a Techub News brief citing CryptoBriefing. The new orders index declined to 48.5, its lowest reading since 2023, pointing to weaker demand conditions. The report said the Caixin manufacturing PMI also slipped to 49.5, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0. Taken together, the figures indicate a broader loss of momentum across factory activity and services-related sectors. Techub, citing CryptoBriefing, said the manufacturing pullback reflected soft domestic demand, the fading effect of earlier export front-loading tied to tariff expectations, and rising costs. The article added that a slowing economy could increase depreciation pressure on the renminbi. Historically, that kind of pressure has been associated with capital seeking alternative stores of value, a dynamic that may indirectly affect the crypto market.

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Market Analys

2026-08-02 23:21:42

Key China and U.S. economic releases due this week, with SpaceX earnings set for Tuesday

Several closely watched economic releases and event catalysts are scheduled for this week, according to Jin10 as cited by ChainCatcher. Monday’s calendar includes China’s July manufacturing PMI and the U.S. June construction spending monthly reading. On Tuesday, markets will watch the U.S. June trade balance and JOLTs job openings, while SpaceX is also expected to release its earnings after the U.S. stock market closes. Wednesday brings the U.S. ADP employment figure and ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Thursday’s focus shifts to Switzerland’s unemployment rate and U.S. initial jobless claims. Friday rounds out the week with two of the most watched U.S. labor market indicators: the July unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls. The schedule puts labor, business activity, and trade data across several economies into focus over the course of the week.

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Nouriel Roubi

2026-07-22 12:45:13

Doctor Doom Roubini Turns Bullish: AI to Power Global Economy, US Growth to Hit 4% by 2030

Nouriel Roubini, famed for predicting the 2008 crisis, now expects AI to drive a global economic boom, with the U.S. and China leading and the U.S. economy reaching 4% annual growth by 2030.

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